Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Electoral Blawg

I will eventually get back to blogging regularly. And maybe make a post about my own life. However, this post is not personal. It's one of my dreaded political posts. Anyway, at least this will be short. 

So quite a bit of my time these days is spent playing on interactive Electoral maps. Long time readers may know about my kind of ridiculous knowledge of the electoral college. Anyway, in looking at this election from a very broad perspective there are two really obvious things to consider:

-President Obama will lose states he won in 2008
-President Obama loses electoral votes due to the 2010 census

Okay, with that said the electoral victory Obama had in 2008 was overwhelming. He could lose a lot and still be just fine. Also given the way the way the states are likely to go Obama is much closer to hitting 270 in my opinion that Romney.

At this point there are eight states that can be considered competitive when I look at the map. They are: Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada. Taking those states out of the equation that leaves the electoral vote looking like this: Obama 237 Romney 206. 

Now of those eight state, I believe that 5 of them are likely going to a candidate. I feel reasonably sure that New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada are going to be states that the President wins and Florida will go to Romney. So taken these predicted results into consideration the electoral vote becomes: Obama 263 Romney 235.

These leaves Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado as the true toss-up states in my book. If this really is the case, it is very likely the President will win the electoral college. Romney would have to carry all three of those states, while not an impossibility, it is very unlikely; in fact, I think it is considerably more likely that the President will carry all three of them than Romney. 

I really think it is unlikely for Mitt Romney to win the electoral college. He could very well win the popular vote, but the electoral math is pretty daunting for him. He really needs to carry most of the states that are still up for contention and that seems highly unlikely. It could happen, but nothing in the polls or political trends really suggests that will happen.

I really feel that this election has been Obama's to lose all along. The Republican candidate was going to be weak regardless of who won their primary. Demographic shifts particularly in Virginia and Colorado make the electoral map more treacherous for the GOP. And ultimately Obama still is a very strong candidate and his campaign is amazing with the logistics of motivating and turning out voters. 

Thanks for reading

-Michael

1 comment:

  1. Hope you're right... good thing you usually are! :)

    ReplyDelete