Midterms Recap

If there one thing to take from any election, it is that everything can change in two years. There are never any absolutes in electoral politics. In the short time that I've been old enough to care about/get politics, I've seen both major parties pronounced dead by pundits. In 2004, it was how marginalized the Democrats had become. In 2008, it was about how the Republicans had become little more than a regional party, whose only supporters are fearful/hateful old people. Lesson here, is that two years following each of these death calls, the party in question had huge electoral victories. So, while the Democrats lost about as bad as any party can in American politics, it doesn't change the fact that the Democrats are still a major party and will without doubt take back congress someday*. And divided may actually work in favor of the Dems in upcoming election, but more on that later.

So, what I want to do is share somethings I think this election did teach us or perhaps some trends that emerged. Again, I'm refraining from any absolutes here, because things can change quick.

Colorado Turning Blue?- Colorado used to be a solid red state. A state where it was a waste of time for a Democrat to spend his time. I mean it would go blue in absolute landslides, like Georgia, but for the most part those electoral votes would go Republican.

Michael Bennet, the Democratic incumbent was able to hold his Senate seat in Colorado. This seemed like a sure pick up for the Republicans, but somehow in a year such as this, a Democrat was able to hold on in Colorado.

Colorado is state that has rapidly changing demographics and those are playing into the Democrats hands. Particularly the increase in the Hispanic population, along with the Republican position on immigration have given the Democrats a pretty good shot at continuing to win in Colorado.

The Tea Party Hurt the Republicans- As massive as Tuesday's victory was the Republicans, it could have been so much worse. Almost the entire reason for that is the Tea Party. The Republican may have picked up 80+ seats in the House and likely would have won control of the Senate had their not been 'Tea Party' candidates. In Colorado, Nevada, and Delaware the Republicans probably would have won easily had their Senate candidates just been mainstream Republicans.

If the tea party continues to be a force in Republican politics, and managed to get their nominee for President, shit will have really had to hit the fan for him to lose reelection. The tea party is very unpopular outside the conservative base and will likely hinder the Republicans in the future.

Of course now there are Tea Party members of Congress now, so the reality of governing may force them to change their ways. Things like voting against raising the Debt ceiling sounds good when you're just rabble-rousing, but when you're actually in government, it's very bad.

2012- It's hard to exactly project what this means for 2012. I mean 2 years is forever in Politics, now more than ever. With the constant media attention, a party or person can go from media darling to pariah. So, here are brief overviews two possible paths. These are both under the assumption that the economy remains shitty.

Good for GOP- The Democrats did hold onto the Senate and of course Obama is still President. If the economy is still bad, the Republicans can blame the Senate for acting on any of their bills or Obama's veto pen. That will probably have some resonance, if the Democrats are as bad message making as they are always are.

Good for Democrats- With GOP control of the House, the Republicans can be forced to take some ownership of the government. This would be aided if the Republicans go for a government shut down or something equally extreme. This allow the Democrats to blame the Republicans for the lack of anything getting done.

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The biggest thing about that can be assured by the results is that absolutely nothing will pass for the next two years. The current congress was amazingly productive, but doesn't get any credit for it. That is almost entirely due to bungling of virtually all the big things that did pass by Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress. However, I think after two years of truly nothing getting done in Capitol, this congress will finally get some credit.

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael
*Probably sooner rather than later.

Election Eve

You know the best thing about this is that I won't have to see anymore of these damn political ads. As much of a political junkie and partisan I am, I just want it to be over. I can't wait until I don't have to hear unfounded attacks as the only thing on TV. It's great that politicians and advocacy think that if you phrase it as a question, you aren't actually making an assertion, but rather are just asking question. I've got to get in on this:

Is Pat Tiberi really a woman?

Does Steve Stivers rape puppies?

Is John Kasich secretly a Nazi who plans to change the Ohio flag to a Swastika?

I'm totally not insinuating anything, I'm just asking questions :)

I've already done my rant about these damn ads. On to more pressing matters.

U.S House of Representatives

It is really hard to get a true grasp as to what exactly will happen when it comes to the final tally in the House. It's clear the Republicans are going to do very well. It's just hard to say whether that very well is 30 seats or 50 seats. The real problem is the lack of reliable polling data for most House races. So, please understand why my projection has wiggle room.

My Projection: The Republicans pick up 40 seats +/- 5 seats.
So, the final tallies: Democrats 210-220 Republicans 210-220

I think we're in for a long night while we try to determine which party will be in control of the House. I think it will be very close and it may hinge on a select few incredibly tight races.

Local Focus

Here are some projections for some of the House Races that are local to me. I'm using a system of my own creation to predict these races. It is based on when I think the race will be called. So here are the four ways I'll be classifying the races:

Called when the polls close- For races that won't really be close

Let me get in a few return to make sure- For races that have the potential or the illusion of being close

Late Night Call- Close race, but the winner becomes evident as the votes get tallied into the late night and early morning

This may take a while- Races that will be very close and the winner might not be known on election night.

I'll be focusing on four Central Ohio races

OH-12

This is the district I live in. It's a pretty safe Republican seat,but has been edging towards almost being competitive the past few cycles. The incumbent Pat Tiberi(R) faces former Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks(D).

Tiberi wins reelection easily

Projection: Called when the polls close

OH-15

The three Columbus congressional districts are evidence of the Republicans effective gerrymandering here in Ohio. Columbus is a major metropolitan are that produces 3 Republican seats in virtually every election. That doesn't make sense, but it's the way the lines are drawn. The only seat in the Columbus area that is ever really competitive is OH-15. It definitely leans Republican, but in years such as 2006 and 2008 it can swing to the Democrats largely due to the fact that this district includes Ohio State University. This year it's a rematch of the very close race in 2008 between Steve Stivers(R) and Incumbent Mary Jo Kilroy(D)

Stivers wins comfortably.

Projection: Let me get in a few return to make sure

OH-18

This is a largely rural district, but it has voted overwhelmingly Democratic the past two elections. This district was once held by the disgraced Bob Ney, which is part of the reason a Democrat has been able to do so well in that district. Zack Space(D) is the incumbent and Bob Gibbs is his challenger. This quite the interesting race and has had a ton of money pumped into it. It will be interesting to see if this district reverts back to its conservative ways. It's going to be close.

I think Gibbs wins this one, but it will be very close. I don't think these candidates will be separated by more that 1000 votes.

Projection: This may take a while

OH-6

This is quite the product of redistricting. This district stretches along the Ohio river from just South of Youngstown to the Southern tip of Ohio. It was formerly held by Ohio governor Ted Strickland(D) who went unopposed in 2004. In 2006 and 2008 the Democrat Charlie Wilson won by large margins. This year he is being challenged by Bill Johnson(R). I think this race will be tight, but I think the Democrats will hold.

Charlie Wilson wins in a tight one

Projection: Late Night Call.

U.S. Senate

I'm almost certain that the Democrats will be able to hold Senate. The Republicans must have virtually every competitive race go their way and I don't see that happening. The gap will tighten considerably, but the Dems should still hold the advantage once all the votes have been counted. Here's who I think will win. *Signifies incumbent party keeps the seat.

California- Barbara Boxer(D)*
Colorado- Ken Buck(R)
Illinois- Mark Kirk(R)
Nevada- Harry Reid(D)*
Pennsylvania- Pat Toomey(R)
Washington- Patty Murray(D)*
West Virginia- Joe Manchin(D)*
Wisconsin- Ron Johnson(R)

Add to that sure Republican pickups in Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota and it's +7 for the Republicans, which still leaves them short of 51 votes at 48. The races in Nevada and Washington are toss-ups, so the Republicans could easily pick them up, which would leave them at 50 votes, which is still short. If it gets to that point, the biggest race will be for Joe Lieberman. Also Illinois and Colorado are very tight races, which could go either way as well and if the Dems can hold one of those seats, the Republicans won't have a chance.

Projection: 50 Democrats 48 Republicans 2 Independents(who caucus with the Democrats)

Just a side note. This won't really affect the balance of Power, but the Senate Race in Alaska is a 3 way cluster fuck. One of the Republican candidates is sure to win, but I doubt any of them breaks 40%

Local Focus

Ohio Senate Race

This race isn't competitive. Rob Portman(R) will be able to win the seat easily, which is being vacated by the retiring George Voinovich(R). This may be the most impressive of the Republican victories statewide.

Projection: Called when the polls close

Ohio's Governor Race

The fact that this race is even close is a credit to how poorly the Kasich Campaign has been run. The incumbent Governor Ted Strickland(D) has been effective in his attacks against Kasich and has used his war chest to flood the airwaves and the web with last week advertising. John Kasich(R) has been consistently ahead by 3-5 points in the polls for the past week. He's pretty close to getting to 50% as well and it's almost a certainty that the undecideds will break decisively for him.

Kasich wins by a few points.

Projection: Late Night Call.

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Things to Look For Tomorrow Night

Is there a liberal back-lash against the Tea-Party?

It's obvious that the apathetic voters this election are on the Democratic side. A lot of Dems aren't too thrilled with their leadership. However, if there is something that can fire up the Liberal base, it is the tea party. Will the tea party cause enough of a spike in the Democratic vote to help the Democrats hold onto congress? I say look to the Senate Race in Nevada and see what effects the tea party candidate has on turnout on both sides.

Is the recent tightening of races by Democrats an indicator of them being able to survive the night?

This is really hard to say. In races like these, the party in power will likely see a tightening in the polls late, as some apathetic and wandering party voters are pulled back into the fold. The problem is that undecided voters will break overwhelmingly to the Republicans on election day. I'd say if a Democrat isn't up in the polls now, he or she is more than likely going to lose. Again, it will be a long and nervous night for the Democrats.

If Harry Reid loses who will be the new Leader of the Democrats in the Senate?

Chuck Schumer.

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Alright, there you have it. It might all be wrong. Check on this blog tomorrow night as I will provide election night coverage.

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael.