Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Election Night

So, here's going to be the organization of this post. At the top I'll have the current numbers for the House and Senate. Also, I'll have numbers of the important Ohio Races. Below that I'll provide some of my thoughts throughout the night, with the newest ones near the top. Along with that I'll be updating Twitter as well. So, here we go:

U.S. Senate

At the moment with projections
Democrats: 52 seats(including independents) Republicans: 46 seats

Seats That Have Changed Party Control
Indiana D->R
Arkansas D->R
North Dakota D->R
Wisconsin D->R
Pennsylvania D->R
Illinois D->R
Net change: +6 Republican

U.S. House

Pasta's Projection: Republicans 234 Democrats 201 +/- 7 seats

Net change: +61 for the Republicans so far. Only about 10 races are yet to be determined.

Ohio Races

Ted Strickland(D)
John Kasich(R)*

Rob Portman(R)*
Lee Fisher(D)

Charlie Wilson(D)
Bill Johnson(R)*

Pat Tiberi (R)*
Paula Brooks(D)

Mary Jo Kilroy(D)
Steve Stivers(R)*

Zack Spacke(D)
Robert Gibbs(R)*

*Projected winner

The Colorado Senate races is finally decided. Michael Bennet holds on to the seat for the Dems in a very tight race.

Washington and Alaska are still undecided. In Washington, the vote counting has come to a stand still at 65% reporting. I can't really find out why. My only guess would be that there is a lot of Mail-in voting there.

In Alaska the winner is likely Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent who failed to win the Republican nomination. In Alaska, they only count Write-in ballots as write-ins unless they can determine the winner of the election, so as of now we just now that Write-in is winning for sure, but Write-in is undoubtedly Murkowski.

This will be the final update on this post unless there is a result out of Washington pretty quickly. I will be doing a wrap-up post on Thursday.

Thanks for reading


P.S. I'll update the actual numbers in this post as they come in.

1:30 am- Apparently there has been a vote counting error in Colorado. Possibly 30,000 to 40,000 votes have been switched from Bennett to Buck. If so, Bennett would retake the lead with a lot of Democratic vote outstanding. It's not clear whether this is an issue with AP or Boulder County itself.

The numbers out of Washington are stagnant.

Unless something interesting happens in about the next fifteen minutes, I'm done for tonight.

Good Night.


1 am- Colorado and Washington are still basically the same as they were. Alaska's polls have closed.

In terms of American politics, what has happened in the House tonight is big. It doesn't get any bigger that this. The Republicans may pick up 65 seats. That's basically a 15% percent turnover, which just doesn't happen.

It's interesting that how bad it is in the House for the Dems, it isn't such a terrible night. It certainly isn't a good night for them, but it could have been so much worse. Really, I think the Democrats can thank the tea party for most of their holds.

I don't know if I'll be up for much longer. Probably only a few more updates.

12:30 am- Harry Reid holds his seat in Nevada. The Dems are at 51. Still wonder if his leadership will be challenged?

Colorado is looking good for the Dems as well. A lot of the outstanding vote is in Suburban Denver, which should go strongly for the Democrat. So, the margin may be growing there soon.

Washington is also looking good for the Democrats as well.

The worst kept secret of the night. If you want to read my partisan views on this check the twitter feed on the right side of the blog.

Only 4 Senate seats yet to be decided. Alaska will close at 1am and that will go to the nominated Republican or an independent who would likely caucus with the Republicans. So, there are 3 competitive races left, in Nevada, Colorado and Washington. I'm thinking the Dems go at least 2 of 3 in those races. Maybe even get the sweep.

It's official Kasich is Governor-elect.

Thinks it will be called for Kasich pretty soon.

Pat Toomey has won the Pennsylvania Senate seat and Mark Kirk has won the Illinois Senate seat , a fifth and sixth pick up for the GOP

Midnight- The Governor's race is tightening, but not by enough. It looks like Kasich will win by 50,000+ votes. Provisional ballots still to be counted.

With the polls closing in Hawaii, the Democrats have now won 50 seats. Things are also looking up for them in Nevada and Washington. Pennsylvania and Illinois are looking like Republican pick-ups in very tight races. Colorado is close as well.

Updating the House Projection. Adjusting the Republican numbers up.

The Ohio Governor's Race is basically down to whether or not Strickland can close the margin with the outstanding vote out of Cuyahoga and Lucas counties. Kasich's vote is virtually entirely in. Once this vote starts coming in the margins will start to close quickly, but still don't think it will be enough.

The Republicans have officially hit their magic number in the house picking up 39 seats. They are likely to just add to that and are unlikely to lost anymore seats.

11:30 PM- Watching the Governor's race intently. The margin is up to 130,000 votes for Kasich. 1/3 of Cuyahoga county(Cleveland) is yet to be counted and about 40% out of Lucas County (Toledo) still to be counted. This race is going to tighten, but I doubt it will be enough for Strickland.

The Senate Races in Illinois and Pennsylvania are still very tight. They may go into tomorrow.

An hour and a half late we finally get the first returns out of Nevada.

OH-12 is now called for Tiberi

I wouldn't have thought OH-12 would be the last one of the four I featured to be called. OH-15 is officially for Stivers. The Governor's races is very tight still. Unlike the Senate races in PA and IL, the Governor's race here in Ohio still has a lot of Democratic vote out. This may take days to figure out who wins.

11 PM- Nevada still has no returns and their polls have been closed for an hour. The NBC projection for the house just keeps getting worse. They're basically predicting a 60 seat gain, which still seems very generous to me. The Democrats are getting beaten severely, but are showing some more fight that I would've thought.

OH-6 is another Republican pick-up. It is also showing some evidence that voters in that District voted Republican for the House race and Democrat for the Governor's race.

OH-15 is also looking like another pick up for the GOP.

10:30 PM- Still no news out of Nevada. Pennsylvania and Illinois still look good for the Democrats. Better in Pennsylvania than Illinois. The vote is largely in for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, so we'll have to see if Sestak can hold his lead. A lot of Republican vote is still out in Illinois with some of Chicago still to be counted. Either of those holds are big for the Dems on a night such as this.

Ron Johnson has defeated Russ Feingold, which is another pick up for the Republicans.

OH-18 is looking like it is going to be a Republican pick-up. Space's vote is in and he is still down by a big margin.

The Ohio Governor's race still looks like it is going to be very tight. Still lots of votes to be counted in Cuyahoga and Franklin county which will be Strickland strongholds. Kasich is running up margins in the rural counties of the western and central part of Ohio. Strickland is doing quite impressively well in his former Congressional District. He's winning in counties in Southeastern Ohio that a Democrat shouldn't.

10pm- Nevada's polls are closed. This is where the night will really start to get interesting. Pennsylvania and Illinois are still close to call, but it is looking better for the Democrats than I thought they would.

I made my House Projection. The Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives at the end of this night. The NBC number is still high to me. The Democratic losses will still be ridiculous though.

9:30 PM- It's looking like Governors race in Ohio will go late into the night as well as the Attorney General race. The votes appear to be coming in very slow from Franklin County. Still a lot to be seen in this state.

The NBC projections seem quite high to me. I think the Republicans are likely on their way to controlling the house, but 237 seats seems at the very top end of what they can expect. If I had to venture a guess right now, I'd say they'll end up with between 220-230 seats.

9 PM- NBC news projects the House will be under Republican control. 237-198. It is looking like there is going to be a lot of bloodshed for the Democrats.

Pick up for the Republicans in North Dakota. Another one that isn't at all surprising.

8:30 PM- The Republicans pick up their second Senate seat. No surprise there. Same as Indiana.
Manchin holds the West Virginia Senate Seat for the Dems. The Dems just need to hold Washington, Nevada, Illinois, or Colorado and will be able to keep control of the Senate.

Not many returns yet out of Ohio.

No changes in the Senate right at the 8pm closings. I think things are looking good for the seat in West Virginia staying in Democratic hands. I think we're looking at very tight races in Illinois, Colorado, Nevada and Washington. Also it may be closer than expected in Pennsylvania.

The first returns are in for Ohio, but little is too be known yet. The governors race will be close. How close? It's hard to say.

Still looking for more definite info for the House. One pick up for the Dems so far, so the Republicans now need to pick up 40 seats for a majority.

A lot of closing at 8pm. Things may start to become more clear in the next hour. As of yet it's hard to say.

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